Transforming Flood Risk Assessment in Afforestation Projects: A New Approach to Safeguarding Carbon Credits
By Jorge Veiras & Valeria Beljaeva
When you hear about climate risks, what comes to mind? Fires, droughts and maybe storms? Floods often take a backseat in these conversations, especially in afforestation and reforestation projects. But their impact can potentially be devastating, and ignoring this risk can jeopardize both the environment and the investments.
At Artio, we believe that offering insurance for carbon removal projects at every stage can encourage greater investment in the field and eventually drive meaningful climate change.The first step to offering insurance starts with thoroughly identifying and understanding the different risks involved, including the risk of floods! That’s why we’ve developed a cutting-edge method to assess and address flood risks in Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation (ARR) projects, ensuring they remain resilient and capable of delivering promised carbon credits.
The Risks of Floods in ARR
Flooding isn’t just a once in a lifetime event anymore, it’s a genuine risk that leaves a lasting mark on communities and ecosystems. Just a few months ago, the floods in Valencia, Spain, served as a sad reminder of how devastating these events can be. Over 200 lives were lost, critical infrastructure was destroyed, and millions of euros in damages were incurred. The ecosystem of Albufera National Park also suffered greatly, as floodwaters carried waste and debris, disrupting wildlife and plant life.
Just a few months earlier, in Peru, flooding ravaged Indigenous Asháninka agroforestry initiatives, wiping out crops, destroying infrastructure, and displacing entire communities.
While these events differ in scale and context, and might not be directly related to carbon removal projects, they do underscore the need to be prepared.
Our model in action; Valencia Through Time:
Before the Flood, After the Flood, and Predicted Flood of a 100-Year Return Period Event based on our modelling. A 100-year return period refers to an event that has a 1% probability of occurring in any given year. While rare, such events can cause devastating impacts and need to be taken into account.
For ARR projects, the implications of floods are vast:
Waterlogging: Saturated soil suffocates roots, leading to decay and tree death.
Erosion and Sediment Build-Up: Fertile soil is washed away, while excess sediment can smother young seedlings.
Physical Damage: Fast-moving water and debris can snap branches or uproot entire trees.
Fungal Growth and Pest Vulnerability: Wet conditions create a perfect storm for fungal infections, further weakening already stressed trees.
Figure 1. Comparison of satellite images captured by the US Landsat-8 satellite, processed by ESA, showing the region of Valencia, Spain, before (8 October 2024) and after (30 October 2024) the devastating floods. The right image reveals extensive flooding in areas such as Alzira and the Albufera Lagoon following torrential rains on 29 October 2024, which delivered a year’s worth of precipitation in just eight hours.
Floods can seriously harm trees and forests, which can make it harder for projects to deliver the carbon credits they promised. How much damage happens depends on things like how severe the flood is, the type of trees and environment involved. To tackle this, we’ve developed a specialised model to assess flood risks.
Figure 2. Comparison of land classification and flood model for the Valencia region. The left image shows an unsupervised classification of the Landsat image from 30 October 2024, distinguishing water, non-water, and invalid areas to highlight land use and surface features following the catastrophic flood event. The right panel presents our flood model for a 100-year return period, illustrating predicted inundation depths (in meters) across the region. A 100-year return period refers to an event with a 1% probability of occurring in any given year, underscoring the importance of planning for such rare but impactful scenarios
A Smarter Way to Assess Flood Risks
At Artio, we’ve moved beyond generic flood risk assessments. We’ve created a model tailored to ARR projects, accounting for the unique vulnerabilities of different tree species and ecosystems. This project-specific approach allows us to assess risks, predict impacts, recommend mitigation strategies and ultimately insure projects.
How We Do It
We rely on the globally respected Aqueduct Floods framework from the World Resources Institute (WRI), which we’ve adapted to meet the unique needs of ARR projects.
What sets our approach apart:
High-Resolution Insights
We use detailed datasets and elevation models to create precise flood depth and extent maps. Think of it like switching from a blurry map to one that can pinpoint every kilometer.
Future-Focused Scenarios
Using IPCC climate and economic pathways, we simulate four possible futures. From a low-emissions, sustainable world to a high-emissions, high-risk scenario. This allows developers and buyers to plan for the best and prepare for the worst.
Holistic Hazard Coverage
Whether a project is near rivers or coastal areas, we factor in both flooding risks.
Species-Specific Analysis
Not all trees respond to floods the same way. We incorporate factors like tree height, age, and diameter along with local environmental factors like temperature and flood duration to assess species-specific vulnerabilities. For example, younger saplings may be far more susceptible to waterlogging than mature trees.
Why This Matters for Carbon Credit Buyers
Imagine investing into a carbon credit project, only to find out it can’t deliver because a flood wiped out half the trees. Our assessments help carbon buyers avoid that scenario. We pinpoint areas at risk and provide practical solutions to reduce those risks, protecting both the project and its long-term success.
On top of that, by offering insurance for well-planned projects, we take the worry out of the equation for buyers. Our data-backed insights give carbon buyers and investors the confidence that the projects they are supporting are ready to handle whatever challenges come their way, both expected and unexpected.
At Artio, we believe that progress happens when we anticipate the obstacles ahead and prepare for them, so the projects built today can stand tall tomorrow. We know it’s unrealistic to prevent all floods or disasters, but there’s real power in knowing we can adapt, rebuild, and keep moving forward. And that’s exactly what we’re helping our partners do.
If you’d like to learn more about our work supporting ARR projects please book a call here.
Cover photo by Justin Wilkens on Unsplash
